Proving the Power of the Downballot: Every State Blue

Democrats need to expand our field of play to include all state legislative districts – especially the red ones

You can’t argue with the results: Republicans have proven that running and supporting candidates in every race, up and down the ballot, cycle after cycle, works.

Democrats, on the other hand, tend to focus attention and investment on specific high-profile or “flippable” districts, with priority given to federal races … and on races against people we hate, such as Mitch McConnell or Majorie Taylor Greene.

Our result? An inconsistent Democratic support structure that depends more on the celebrity of individual candidates (or their opponents) and the perceived flippability of districts than a strategic, long-term, scalable plan.

Of particular need for attention are state legislative races, which Democrats often leave unchallenged and unsupported, especially in red, rural areas.

Those races are hugely consequential, both for the people living in those states, and nationally. After all, anti-choice, anti-labor, and anti-voting rights legislation is passed in the states.

The unfortunate truth is, while Democrats focus their attention on federal races, the issues that most impact our daily lives are decided in races that Democrats don’t pay much attention to – and often don’t contest at all.

We need to change our approach and expand our field of play.

We wondered: what is the impact of running and funding Democratic state legislative nominees in red districts?

We decided to commission a study to answer that question.

To determine the impact of having a funded Democratic nominee on the ballot, we engaged a team from Washington University. The team looked at Missouri, where we ran our pilot state-based project funding down-ballot Democratic nominees for state legislature.

Here’s what we found:

Having a Nominee Improves Vote Share for the Top-of-the-Ticket by 1.5%

Having a Democratic nominee matters. Looking at the 2020 election, simply having a nominee on the ballot increased vote share for the top of the ticket (President Joe Biden) by 1.5%. Those results were almost identical to a study done in 2017 by the Analyst Institute in Virginia, and another done by Run for Something in 2020.

Funding impacts both vote share and turnout.

Funding made a difference, too – for every $10k the nominee raised, they increased vote share for the top of the ticket by 0.25%. And in 2013, a professor at LSU did a review of 20 states and found that funding a state legislative challenger at $0.36 per eligible voter increased turnout by 1%. Source: R. Hogan, Campaign Spending and Voter Participation in State Legislative Elections, Soc. Sci. Quarterly (Sep. 2013).

Every State Blue projects have huge potential to “move the needle” both statewide and nationally

Our study results show that, taking both the 1.5% benefit of simply having a Democratic nominee on the ballot and the impact of funding on both turnout and vote share, we can expect up to a 2.5% increase in Democratic vote share for the top of the ticket in a district that goes from no nominee to a minimally funded nominee. (“Minimally funded” is defined as a nominee that receive sat least $0.36 per eligible voter.)

Now we wondered: with those vote share and turnout gains, what would be the real world statewide impact of running and funding nominees in every district?

We found that the benefit to the top of the ticket from running funded nominees in every district is dramatic enough to swing statewide and national outcomes.

Had an Every State Blue project been implemented in 2016 in Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton would have been elected president in 2016.

If an Every State Blue project had been in place in 2020 in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, President Biden would have had a substantially greater margin in each of those states in 2020, making the “Big Lie” even less credible.

We already know that in 2024, we will need to overcome voter suppression and outlandish objections. Increasing the Democratic nominee’s margins by as much as possible in swing states will be important.

The benefits of running funding nominees in every district are clear. The real world impact of doing so is also clear.

The question isn’t whether Democrats should fund every state legislative nominee – but how we do so in the most efficient and sustainable way. We have developed the program that answers that question.

Our Solution: Unique Funding Model + Grassroots Power + Long-Term Commitment

The solution we propose is simple: grassroots communities of monthly donors who, acting together, crowdfund for underfunded Democratic nominees for state legislature – especially in red districts.

Based on our research, we know that it’s important to ensure every Democratic nominee has a minimal amount of funding. But in ultra-gerrymandered red states, it’s hard to find someone to run in red districts – let alone get them funding.

For example, in 2020, before our Blue Ohio project launched in 2022, 13 Democratic nominees for Ohio state legislature had less than $5,000 to run their entire campaign. In Missouri, eight nominees had less than $1,000. Last cycle in Tennessee, one quarter of the Democratic nominees had less than $5,000.

The same story repeats itself in (red) state after (red) state.

That’s the gap that we need to fill. And it’s why – unlike any other organization we’re aware of – we distribute funds first to those nominees who have the least. That way, we lift everyone up and create a funding floor below which no nominee will go.

And do you know what?

It’s working.

This year, our grassroots Blue Ohio community has already raised and distributed over $285,000 to a whopping 56 Democratic nominees – creating a funding floor of $7,386.44.

Individually, that support makes a huge difference. Nominees have told us they’re using the funds for yard signs, literature, postcards and gas money. By giving them resources, we’re making it easier for them to turn out voters and push back against the Ohio GOP’s extreme agenda.

But consider the collective impact:

Before Blue Ohio’s support, those 56 nominees – who are running against some of the Ohio GOP’s most extreme legislators – had collectively raised $128,628.

Now they have $413,640.

That was all made possible because of Blue Ohio – an incredible, supportive, evergreen community of monthly grassroots donors. (You can join that community here). As an evergreen community, we have become the perpetual power source for state legislative races in Ohio.

With state projects in Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee, and our national Forgotten Democrats program supporting underfunded Congressional nominees, we are lifting up entire states and making sure that Republican extremists – even in some of the reddest, most gerrymandered districts in the country – aren’t getting a free pass.

We’ve proven the power of the downballot – and the power of the grassroots.

You can be part of the change by supporting our work here – or by joining one of our communities. We’ll be so proud to have you.